Until this year, AACL had provided a last resort way for cash to plant a crop. This announcement by Glencore could help fill this gap.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/wa/16422751/struggling-farmers-get-cash-boost/
Friday, 22 March 2013
Wednesday, 20 March 2013
$260 a tonne for wheat in 2013?
I recently participated with a presentation at a Commonwealth Bank day, and heard price predictions for wheat and other commodities for 2013.
The stories they present for such predictions always make good sense. Plenty of graphs and statistics to explain their viewpoint, and they may even give a figure such as $260 a tonne for wheat (at port). You would conclude that these guys really know what they are talking about. (Another Country Hour forecast was for only $220 a tonne!)
What is missing from such predictions is a "skill rating". How close have they been in past predictions? This might make the predictions a bit more helpful. At least the Ag Dept's weather forecasters now include this in their reports.
It is all very well to use past trends to predict future prices, but as Nassim Taleb points out - the Thanks-giving turkey could conclude that all humans are wonderful and kind, until the fatal day.
For farming, this is why it is more of an art than a science. We have to be conservative with management because something can always wrong, and usually does.
The stories they present for such predictions always make good sense. Plenty of graphs and statistics to explain their viewpoint, and they may even give a figure such as $260 a tonne for wheat (at port). You would conclude that these guys really know what they are talking about. (Another Country Hour forecast was for only $220 a tonne!)
What is missing from such predictions is a "skill rating". How close have they been in past predictions? This might make the predictions a bit more helpful. At least the Ag Dept's weather forecasters now include this in their reports.
It is all very well to use past trends to predict future prices, but as Nassim Taleb points out - the Thanks-giving turkey could conclude that all humans are wonderful and kind, until the fatal day.
For farming, this is why it is more of an art than a science. We have to be conservative with management because something can always wrong, and usually does.
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