Monday, 16 December 2013

The Australian story of wheat - in Albany!

Strawberry Hill Farm in Albany lays claim to be the oldest farm in Western Australia, being established in 1827. Our school boy history was that such early setters battled to survive because the climate was unsuitable for English crops such as wheat. We were told that wheat crops failed due to diseases such as rust, until William Farrer bred Federation wheat, which was distributed in 1903.

This year at the "Old Farm" - Strawberry Hill, Federation has been grown for display, along with other heritage varieties.Other varieties on display were "Miracle" - proclaimed by Wheat Commissioner in 1929 to be "by no means specifically prolific". Ford - popular in the 1930s, at least in Victoria, where it was replacing Nabawa (also on display) at that time.

Seeing these old varieties - including Federation which was much improved at the time, makes you wonder how the colonists did survive. Also of interest, was the absence of disease on these varieites, though this may be because the Albany site is now well separated from other wheat growing areas.

Pictures - the site -


Federation wheat - not a great crop compared to modern varieties.
Thanks Robbo - for the tip off!


Saturday, 7 December 2013

Cook Better With The Science Of Taste

After coming to an interest in cooking late in life, I have my own way of doing the job - such as a disdain for recipes. Instead, this recent link summarises an alternative - working from the basics. Like all clever people, this writer proves I have been right all along.

http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2013/12/learn-to-make-any-dish-you-cook-better-with-the-science-of-taste/

Sunday, 1 December 2013

Gottliebsen's view that Hockey made the right call

I have always had high regard for Robert Gottleibsen's views, and this piece gives perspective on the government's rejection of the GrainCorp bid. It is interesting for a free market believer to make this call on an exception. Note that he acknowledges other views.





 December 2, 2013
"In my view Treasurer Joe Hockey made the correct call on GrainCorp. If GrainCorp can find the right management and directors, the company now has the opportunity to be the ‘Big Australian’ of agriculture. In other words it could duplicate, in agriculture, what BHP Billiton has done in minerals.
Australia has set up agriculture as the next major growth industry for the nation. But the world of agriculture is changing and the rewards of the industry are going to the transporters and processors of agricultural products. If agriculture is indeed going to be a growth industry we will need a national champion in those growth areas. And GrainCorp is our one and only opportunity to have such a champion. 
Joe Hockey almost certainly made his decision without my assistance. But as the treasurer and his people were deliberating last week I set out very clearly why the losers in the GrainCorp proposal were the farmers and the Australian nation. The winners were the management and, in the short term, the shareholders (Will pay dirt slip through farmers' hands?, November 25).
Of course I recognise that my colleague Stephen Bartholomeusz and others have a different view (ADM's rejection goes against the grain of logic, November 29).
I always respect and admire Steve’s views and analysis but sometimes we disagree. This is one such occasion.
In my view, the three main reasons stated for agreeing to the takeover of GrainCorp either do not stack up of are offset by the disadvantages. People like the Business Council of Australia indicate that the GrainCorp rejection will frighten off overseas investors. Overseas investors only have to look at how we approved the Canadians bid for Warrnambool Cheese in a way that severely disadvantaged local bidders to see that there is no general anti-foreign bias.
Most realistic overseas investors would understand that bids to change a national infrastructure company, which provides the lifeline for the farming community, into an international player in competition for capital and resources with rival overseas agricultural industries will usually be blocked.
The second reason that is touted is that Archer Daniels Midland would have provided the $250 million to $500 million required to improve the GrainCorp infrastructure. In the last 10 days I have addressed the trustees of more than 1500 self-managed superannuation funds. If a proper agricultural infrastructure company is set up then Australia can raise that money very easily. And setting up that structure must be the first task of GrainCorp management. I have no doubt that Archer Daniels Midland would have been aware of the global thirst for good infrastructure investment projects. However they may not have been aware that, in Australia, that desire is strongest among the self-managed funds, which are the largest players in the superannuation capital arena with a market share of over 31 per cent.
The third reason people give for acceptance is that Australian farmers would have gained access to the Archer Daniels Midland customer base. That sounds like a good idea but Australian grain is in big demand and GrainCorp should know who the large buyers are and also be able to contract with large trading houses like ADM without giving them ownership.
It’s true that shareholders would be much better off in the short term accepting the takeover offer. They have been badly treated. But when you own part of a nation’s vital infrastructure you cannot assume that you will be allowed to sell that infrastructure to people who are overseas rivals –particularly in an industry that we have earmarked for national growth.
The board of GrainCorp first needs to set up an infrastructure arm so it can raise capital at low cost. Then it needs to look at BHP Billiton and study how over time the 'Big Australian' has given a degree of stability to minerals even though it is a wildly fluctuating business. BHP invested in five major plays – iron ore, oil/gas, coal, aluminium/nickel and potash. It is now transferring its operating skills from one minerals industry to another but the five plays have fluctuations, which in most years offset each other and provide a degree of stability (in recent years they have all boomed but that is rare).
GrainCorp needs to think about how to implement a similar strategy over time. Prior to the ADM bid GrainCorp was buying international assets to lessen income variation, so was heading in that direction, but the strategy lacked clarity and required an associated infrastructure investment strategy.
The existing board and management need to undertake some deep soul searching as to whether they have the skills to implement a BHP style strategy. Alison Watkins clearly does not believe she has that ability and opens the position for a champion. If GrainCorp is to achieve the potential of the looming food boom, the board should choose a CEO who is willing to talk to self managed super investors about infrastructure investment.
Footnote: America is a major wheat growing rival. The fact that the Americans didn't like our rejection makes you think we got it right. 

Thursday, 14 November 2013

More on the finished Armstrong Siddeley

The prize for the best photos goes to Sheena Prince. She even made us look good.
 At the Albany version of the Opera House

The Tusker team

It really does go.

More proof it is Albany.

The bad news was that two days after this public launch, the rear was stoved in -

But that did not deter an admiring crowd at the Albany show -


Saturday, 9 November 2013

Edward John Eyre - the forgotten explorer

"Eyre - the forgotten explorer", by Ivan Rudolph, tells the great story of Edward John Eyre.
http://www.southaustralianhistory.com.au/johneyre.htm
Amazing that survived, with one reason being his cultivation and use of aboriginal contacts.
He was only 25 (born 1815) when he set out to cross the Nullabor in 1840, but by that time was already an experienced bush explorer. The Nullabor nearly brought him undone, but several bits of luck allowed him to survive, arriving in Albany on July 6th, 1841.

Wednesday, 6 November 2013

Steve Keen on the Nobel Prize for Economics

As well as an interesting perspective on Australian house prices, Steve Keen gives an opinion about the Nobel Prize for economics - i.e. it is really not a "science", in terms of providing clear answers. That does not mean that economics cannot contribute to all sorts of issues, just that it is a case of "buyer beware".

Economics’ odd couple highlights a Nobel folly


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I would love to be in the audi­ence watch­ing the body lan­guage at this year’s “Nobel” cer­e­mony for eco­nom­ics. Robert Shiller, who is far too polite a per­son to make it obvi­ous, will nonethe­less at least fid­get as he lis­tens to Eugene Fama’s speech, since Fama con­tin­ues to dis­pute that bub­bles in asset prices can even be defined. Shiller, in con­trast, first came to pub­lic promi­nence with his warn­ings in the early 2000s that the stock and hous­ing mar­kets in the States were dis­play­ing signs of “irra­tional exuberance”.
Fama came to promi­nence within eco­nom­ics – though not in the wider body politic – in the 1970s with his PhD research that argued that asset mar­kets were “effi­cient” not just a first order (get­ting the actual val­ues right) but even to a sec­ond order (pick­ing the turn­ing points in val­u­a­tion as well).
How can two such dia­met­ri­cally opposed views receive the Nobel Prize in one year? The equiv­a­lent in physics would be to award the prize to one research team that proved that the Higgs Boson existed, and another that proved it didn’t.
- See more at: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2013/10/21/economics-odd-couple-highlights-a-nobel-folly/#sthash.90I73Ru0.dpuf

Steve Keen hasn't given up on Australian house prices - same for farming?

How to spot a housing bubble before it bursts

After a bubble has burst, no one denies that it existed. But before it does, the popular refrain is that though bubbles existed elsewhere in the world, “there’s no bubble here”. So housing bubbles are admitted to have existed in Japan, the USA, Spain and Ireland – because they’ve already burst.
But the rest of the world – and especially Australia – is different. House prices in Australia, the UK, and everywhere in between where they are still rising, are justified by … (fill in your favourite fundamental reasons here) and are not in any way manifestations of bubbles.

Part 2 - Housing hopes: Will the souffle rise twice?

My previous post on house price data from the BIS (How to spot a housing bubble before it bursts, October 15) scotched one part of the ‘No Bubble Downunder’ case: Australia is one of four countries where house prices are more than twice as high as they were in real terms in 1985 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: The Bubble Contenders
Graph for Housing hopes: Will the souffle rise twice?



Part 3 - The housing bubble Whodunnit

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This arti­cle is the third in a series on Australia’s hous­ing mar­ket. Read the first arti­cle here and sec­ond arti­cle here.
In the last two arti­cles in this series, I argued that Australia’s house prices “walk like a duck” – using BIS data, Aus­tralia is one of only four coun­tries where prices are twice as high in real terms as they were in 1985. And they “quack like a duck” – accel­er­at­ing house­hold debt is a major dri­ver of ris­ing house prices, as in the other present and past house price bub­ble economies (the US, Spain, Japan, Nor­way, the UK and Den­mark). So hav­ing con­cluded they’re a duck, what species of duck are they?
At first glance, the Aus­tralian house price bub­ble does appear to be a dif­fer­ent species to its Euro­pean and Amer­i­can brethren. Tack­ing Nigel Stapleton’s data onto the ABS series, we can develop an index for Aus­tralia going back to 1880 – com­pared to 1890 for America’s Shiller Index and (wait for it) 1628 for the Heren­gracht Canal Index. With 350 years of data, there is clearly no trend to the Euro­pean series; and after the sub­prime crash, any argu­ment that there is a trend to US prices now looks pretty shabby – even though prices are clearly ris­ing once more in the Land of the Sur­veilled (see Fig­ure 1).
Fig­ure 1: Long term real house price indices
Graph for The housing bubble Whodunnit
- See more at: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2013/11/04/the-housing-bubble-whodunnit/#sthash.KjNFvAmy.dpuf

Monday, 4 November 2013

The completed Whitley

The Whitley completed, together with the team of workers plus hanger-on.
It will be on display at the Albany show.

Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Cadiz - a green manure option?

The possibility of a green manure phase in a rotation has been discussed for many years. It looks to be working here - with this crop of Cadiz, though we can't give figures on the benefit yet.
Note the large ryegrass plants in the background, which have been killed with a wick applicator.



Friday, 25 October 2013

Our soil variability problem

You would not think our soils varied so much. At least people not involved with farming could not imagine this. One way to see the soil variation, is in roadside cuttings, though these days, they tend to cover the exposed subsoil with topsoil.
But here is good photographic proof. The wheat crop is in the eastern wheatbelt, and the variation in maturity reflects soil differences. How could you apply "precision agriculture" in this situation?



Friday, 18 October 2013

Old cars the best "collectible"

The Economist recently compared returns on various collectibles. "We" finished our car restoration at the right time!


Prices are racing ahead for vintage cars, but coins, stamps and even violins have done well too.

I, Pencil

A famous essay, published in 1958, that illustrates the wonders of our time.


I, Pencil. My Family Tree as told to Leonard E. Read

RP.1
I am a lead pencil—the ordinary wooden pencil familiar to all boys and girls and adults who can read and write.*
RP.2
Writing is both my vocation and my avocation; that's all I do.
RP.3
You may wonder why I should write a genealogy. Well, to begin with, my story is interesting. And, next, I am a mystery—more so than a tree or a sunset or even a flash of lightning. But, sadly, I am taken for granted by those who use me, as if I were a mere incident and without background. This supercilious attitude relegates me to the level of the commonplace. This is a species of the grievous error in which mankind cannot too long persist without peril. For, the wise G. K. Chesterton observed, "We are perishing for want of wonder, not for want of wonders."
RP.4
I, Pencil, simple though I appear to be, merit your wonder and awe, a claim I shall attempt to prove. In fact, if you can understand me—no, that's too much to ask of anyone—if you can become aware of the miraculousness which I symbolize, you can help save the freedom mankind is so unhappily losing. I have a profound lesson to teach. And I can teach this lesson better than can an automobile or an airplane or a mechanical dishwasher because—well, because I am seemingly so simple.
RP.5
Simple? Yet, not a single person on the face of this earth knows how to make me. This sounds fantastic, doesn't it? Especially when it is realized that there are about one and one-half billion of my kind produced in the U.S.A. each year.
RP.6
Pick me up and look me over. What do you see? Not much meets the eye—there's some wood, lacquer, the printed labeling, graphite lead, a bit of metal, and an eraser.

Innumerable Antecedents

RP.7
Just as you cannot trace your family tree back very far, so is it impossible for me to name and explain all my antecedents. But I would like to suggest enough of them to impress upon you the richness and complexity of my background.
RP.8
My family tree begins with what in fact is a tree, a cedar of straight grain that grows in Northern California and Oregon. Now contemplate all the saws and trucks and rope and the countless other gear used in harvesting and carting the cedar logs to the railroad siding. Think of all the persons and the numberless skills that went into their fabrication: the mining of ore, the making of steel and its refinement into saws, axes, motors; the growing of hemp and bringing it through all the stages to heavy and strong rope; the logging camps with their beds and mess halls, the cookery and the raising of all the foods. Why, untold thousands of persons had a hand in every cup of coffee the loggers drink!
RP.9
The logs are shipped to a mill in San Leandro, California. Can you imagine the individuals who make flat cars and rails and railroad engines and who construct and install the communication systems incidental thereto? These legions are among my antecedents.
RP.10
Consider the millwork in San Leandro. The cedar logs are cut into small, pencil-length slats less than one-fourth of an inch in thickness. These are kiln dried and then tinted for the same reason women put rouge on their faces. People prefer that I look pretty, not a pallid white. The slats are waxed and kiln dried again. How many skills went into the making of the tint and the kilns, into supplying the heat, the light and power, the belts, motors, and all the other things a mill requires? Sweepers in the mill among my ancestors? Yes, and included are the men who poured the concrete for the dam of a Pacific Gas & Electric Company hydroplant which supplies the mill's power!
RP.11
Don't overlook the ancestors present and distant who have a hand in transporting sixty carloads of slats across the nation.
RP.12
Once in the pencil factory—$4,000,000 in machinery and building, all capital accumulated by thrifty and saving parents of mine—each slat is given eight grooves by a complex machine, after which another machine lays leads in every other slat, applies glue, and places another slat atop—a lead sandwich, so to speak. Seven brothers and I are mechanically carved from this "wood-clinched" sandwich.
RP.13
My "lead" itself—it contains no lead at all—is complex. The graphite is mined in Ceylon. Consider these miners and those who make their many tools and the makers of the paper sacks in which the graphite is shipped and those who make the string that ties the sacks and those who put them aboard ships and those who make the ships. Even the lighthouse keepers along the way assisted in my birth—and the harbor pilots.
RP.14
The graphite is mixed with clay from Mississippi in which ammonium hydroxide is used in the refining process. Then wetting agents are added such as sulfonated tallow—animal fats chemically reacted with sulfuric acid. After passing through numerous machines, the mixture finally appears as endless extrusions—as from a sausage grinder-cut to size, dried, and baked for several hours at 1,850 degrees Fahrenheit. To increase their strength and smoothness the leads are then treated with a hot mixture which includes candelilla wax from Mexico, paraffin wax, and hydrogenated natural fats.
RP.15
My cedar receives six coats of lacquer. Do you know all the ingredients of lacquer? Who would think that the growers of castor beans and the refiners of castor oil are a part of it? They are. Why, even the processes by which the lacquer is made a beautiful yellow involve the skills of more persons than one can enumerate!
RP.16
Observe the labeling. That's a film formed by applying heat to carbon black mixed with resins. How do you make resins and what, pray, is carbon black?
RP.17
My bit of metal—the ferrule—is brass. Think of all the persons who mine zinc and copper and those who have the skills to make shiny sheet brass from these products of nature. Those black rings on my ferrule are black nickel. What is black nickel and how is it applied? The complete story of why the center of my ferrule has no black nickel on it would take pages to explain.
RP.18
Then there's my crowning glory, inelegantly referred to in the trade as "the plug," the part man uses to erase the errors he makes with me. An ingredient called "factice" is what does the erasing. It is a rubber-like product made by reacting rape-seed oil from the Dutch East Indies with sulfur chloride. Rubber, contrary to the common notion, is only for binding purposes. Then, too, there are numerous vulcanizing and accelerating agents. The pumice comes from Italy; and the pigment which gives "the plug" its color is cadmium sulfide.

No One Knows

RP.19
Does anyone wish to challenge my earlier assertion that no single person on the face of this earth knows how to make me?
RP.20
Actually, millions of human beings have had a hand in my creation, no one of whom even knows more than a very few of the others. Now, you may say that I go too far in relating the picker of a coffee berry in far off Brazil and food growers elsewhere to my creation; that this is an extreme position. I shall stand by my claim. There isn't a single person in all these millions, including the president of the pencil company, who contributes more than a tiny, infinitesimal bit of know-how. From the standpoint of know-how the only difference between the miner of graphite in Ceylon and the logger in Oregon is in the type of know-how. Neither the miner nor the logger can be dispensed with, any more than can the chemist at the factory or the worker in the oil field—paraffin being a by-product of petroleum.
RP.21
Here is an astounding fact: Neither the worker in the oil field nor the chemist nor the digger of graphite or clay nor any who mans or makes the ships or trains or trucks nor the one who runs the machine that does the knurling on my bit of metal nor the president of the company performs his singular task because he wants me. Each one wants me less, perhaps, than does a child in the first grade. Indeed, there are some among this vast multitude who never saw a pencil nor would they know how to use one. Their motivation is other than me. Perhaps it is something like this: Each of these millions sees that he can thus exchange his tiny know-how for the goods and services he needs or wants. I may or may not be among these items.

No Master Mind

RP.22
There is a fact still more astounding: the absence of a master mind, of anyone dictating or forcibly directing these countless actions which bring me into being. No trace of such a person can be found. Instead, we find the Invisible Hand at work. This is the mystery to which I earlier referred.
RP.23
It has been said that "only God can make a tree." Why do we agree with this? Isn't it because we realize that we ourselves could not make one? Indeed, can we even describe a tree? We cannot, except in superficial terms. We can say, for instance, that a certain molecular configuration manifests itself as a tree. But what mind is there among men that could even record, let alone direct, the constant changes in molecules that transpire in the life span of a tree? Such a feat is utterly unthinkable!
RP.24
I, Pencil, am a complex combination of miracles: a tree, zinc, copper, graphite, and so on. But to these miracles which manifest themselves in Nature an even more extraordinary miracle has been added: the configuration of creative human energies—millions of tiny know-hows configurating naturally and spontaneously in response to human necessity and desire and in the absence of any human master-minding! Since only God can make a tree, I insist that only God could make me. Man can no more direct these millions of know-hows to bring me into being than he can put molecules together to create a tree.
RP.25
The above is what I meant when writing, "If you can become aware of the miraculousness which I symbolize, you can help save the freedom mankind is so unhappily losing." For, if one is aware that these know-hows will naturally, yes, automatically, arrange themselves into creative and productive patterns in response to human necessity and demand—that is, in the absence of governmental or any other coercive masterminding—then one will possess an absolutely essential ingredient for freedom: a faith in free people. Freedom is impossible without this faith.
RP.26
Once government has had a monopoly of a creative activity such, for instance, as the delivery of the mails, most individuals will believe that the mails could not be efficiently delivered by men acting freely. And here is the reason: Each one acknowledges that he himself doesn't know how to do all the things incident to mail delivery. He also recognizes that no other individual could do it. These assumptions are correct. No individual possesses enough know-how to perform a nation's mail delivery any more than any individual possesses enough know-how to make a pencil. Now, in the absence of faith in free people—in the unawareness that millions of tiny know-hows would naturally and miraculously form and cooperate to satisfy this necessity—the individual cannot help but reach the erroneous conclusion that mail can be delivered only by governmental "master-minding."

Testimony Galore

RP.27
If I, Pencil, were the only item that could offer testimony on what men and women can accomplish when free to try, then those with little faith would have a fair case. However, there is testimony galore; it's all about us and on every hand. Mail delivery is exceedingly simple when compared, for instance, to the making of an automobile or a calculating machine or a grain combine or a milling machine or to tens of thousands of other things. Delivery? Why, in this area where men have been left free to try, they deliver the human voice around the world in less than one second; they deliver an event visually and in motion to any person's home when it is happening; they deliver 150 passengers from Seattle to Baltimore in less than four hours; they deliver gas from Texas to one's range or furnace in New York at unbelievably low rates and without subsidy; they deliver each four pounds of oil from the Persian Gulf to our Eastern Seaboard—halfway around the world—for less money than the government charges for delivering a one-ounce letter across the street!
RP.28
The lesson I have to teach is this: Leave all creative energies uninhibited. Merely organize society to act in harmony with this lesson. Let society's legal apparatus remove all obstacles the best it can. Permit these creative know-hows freely to flow. Have faith that free men and women will respond to the Invisible Hand. This faith will be confirmed. I, Pencil, seemingly simple though I am, offer the miracle of my creation as testimony that this is a practical faith, as practical as the sun, the rain, a cedar tree, the good earth.
RP.29
Leonard E. Read (1898-1983) founded FEE in 1946 and served as its president until his death.

"I, Pencil," his most famous essay, was first published in the December 1958 issue of The Freeman. Although a few of the manufacturing details and place names have changed over the past forty years, the principles are unchanged.

* My official name is "Mongol 482." My many ingredients are assembled, fabricated, and finished by Eberhard Faber Pencil Company.

Monday, 7 October 2013

Elon Musk and the remarkable Tesla story

Thanks to Steve, at a family gathering, I became aware of the story of Teslar electric cars in the United States, and the remarkable Elon Musk, the CEO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Motors

Could this be the next Microsoft startup?

"Today everyone feels like a monarchist"

This is what Tony Abbott thinks.
What is more, according to Geoff Gallup on talkback radio, Tony Abbott has reinstated pictures of the Queen, and sworn his oath to her, instead of to the people of Australia - thus turning back the clock against the tradition of recent Prime Ministers.
More of the story on the republic website - http://www.ouridentity.org.au/
Or for Tony Abbott's side - http://www.norepublic.com.au/
Time will tell!

Sunday, 6 October 2013

Which is best for crops? - 60mm in March or 60 mm in September

For Jerramungup this year, September rainfall has roughly equalled the March figure of 60 mm. Which will be more important to wheat yields?
Most people would think the September figure was the important one. But this could be overlooking the important nitrogen release from the March rain. The March rain, followed by chemical fallow has probably contributed a lot to nitrogen release. If this is the case, the theoretical potential of 20 kg of wheat per mm of rain could be adjusted up to 24 kg, according to South Australian researcher, Victor Sadras. For soils with low nitrogen levels, the potential might be as low as 6 kg per mm.
This year's soil tests showed that nitrogen levels were high because it was not just the March rain, but there was earlier rain as well. Consequently, we were expecting good yields, even without the good September rain.
Either way, for this year, crops should yield very well. The question about the benefit from spring rain compared to soil nitrogen levels will be more relevant for future crop management. Most people are at least vaguely aware of the importance of soil nitrogen, but this year's experiences from this harvest will add to this picture.

Sunday, 29 September 2013

The Finished Whitley!

The craftsmanship is not mine, but at least I have some talented friends!
Even the finshed photos are not mine.




And "before" -