2.4 per cent Neanderthal

Today's news is that my National Geographic DNA test has indicated that my genome is 2.4 per cent Neanderthal!
For some, this may explain why I am the way I am, but most other people of European descent have similar genetic profiles.
The test can be organised simply, with a kit costing $200, which can be bought on-line -
https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/ The website explains more of the research.
I was interested whether the curly hair in the family came from sub-Saharan Africa. A recent TV program suggested that this was common enough in the UK population, for instance with migration following the Crusades. Apparently the test was negative on this possibility.
We still cannot confirm or deny any royal blood, but we are a part of the Neatherthal family. Not much chance of a lucky inheritance from them.

Soil biology a long term tactic

If anyone doubted that soil biology is a long term tactic, the following graph that I discovered recently, from the Rothamstead agricultural research station illustrates this.

"FYM" stands for farm yard manure, and it took some 40 years for soils to respond to applications.

Apparently, the initial aims of these plots were to show that artificial fertilisers could match the traditional applications of farm yard manures. These graphs indicate that to some extent, this can true in the short term, but not in the long term.

We still have a lot to learn about this. Any comments or further detail would be greatly appreciated.

Why grain demand will outstrip supply - or not?

There has been plenty of discussion about "food security" in recent years. For example, Julian Cribb led the charge with his book "The Coming Famine", after a spike in wheat prices from 2007.

This debate has revived the old Malthusian doomsday forecasts, and a current example is an article in "The Conversation" which has stimulated plenty of discussion -

http://theconversation.com/crop-crisis-why-global-grain-demand-will-outstrip-supply-15298

Certainly, to any biologist, world population growth would suggest a looming crisis -

On the demand side of the food supply equation, this graph hides the fall in fertility in the developed world in recent decades. This change could contain or reverse patterns of population growth.

As for the supply side, the decline in productivity discussed in "The Conversation" article is quite real, certainly in our local experience. This decline has several causes, starting with "difficult seasons" (for those who can still deny "climate change").

Less apparent is the failure of agricultural research institutions to deliver productivity improvement. In fact, even farm leaders are calling for more R&D expenditure - usually by government. This has been suggested as a glib solution to farm debt problems.

The positive for the supply of food is that we now have a lot more people thinking about ways to increase food supply. As well, communication across the world is now possible to an extent unimaginable in Maltus's day. Though we may be experiencing a plateau of productivity in food production, this is probably only short-term ("market failure"?). In the medium term, humanity has demonstrated remarkable ability to solve problems if it can focus on the issue.

We can therefore hope that this discussion will help focus on the complex economic and social issues that lie behind food production businesses.

The Armstrong Siddeley Dashboard

Our restored dashboard for our Armstrong Siddeley Whitley. One of the restorers (not me!) made it from olive wood he collected some years ago.

"My" Armstrong Siddely restoration

I can't really claim that this is my work. But I am part of the syndicate.

A fantastic looking result already.

90 per cent Water Use Efficiency

Just when it seems impossible to get crops performing better than 50 to 60 per cent water use efficiency, up comes a 90 per cent result.
Of course the figure is rubbery, but most people have patches of paddocks of paddocks that do a lot better than the farm average. Results like this one - a 90 per center! - prove that somehow, we should be able to fix our soils.

Forget pools for selling grain?

I have always respected opinions by Malcolm Batholomeaus. Below is his view on the future for pooling grain, from his ABC Country Hour interview on April 10th.

The editor of the grain market newsletter Profarmer says the days of the traditional grain pool are numbered.

Malcolm Batholomaeus says these pools are no longer appropriate in the current deregulated market, the pools consistently underperform and leave growers far too exposed to price falls after harvest.

This follows grain marketing company Emerald's revelation that when its 2011/12 grain pool closes this month it will fall well short of expectations.

The final value of the pool would have fallen by $30 per tonne, which equates to millions of dollars in decreased equity.

"In a regulated market operated by AWB pooling was quite a good option for growers to maximise returns on their grain, in fact when I used to look at the data on this it was only in drought years that selling for cash during harvest would outperform delivering to the AWB pool."

"So they've had a very strong track record, it was a hedged pool, they used to provide protection for price falls after harvest as well as capture some of the price gains during that period. That's all changed since the market was deregulated."

"We just haven't seen any of the pools since deregulation perform in the same way as AWB used to perform."

"In part that's because we have far more operators so we have a large number of very small pools with small operators who may get it right or wrong. In a large pool a few crook trades can be averaged out across a large tonnage, in small pools it's not quite as flexible."

"I think farmers who are still using pools haven't understood that the performance of pools has changed radically since the AWB days. I think when the market deregulated they said look we are not interested in marketing our grain we're not interested in putting the time or money into it we will buy a marketing product off the shelf for five or six dollars a tonne and place it in a pool. Unfortunately they haven't understood that the performance of pools has dropped dramatically and it's nowhere near what AWB used to achieve."

"Traditional pools are no longer appropriate in the current market structure we have, the operators of traditional pools have tried to make them attractive to growers by bells and whistles like increments or pre commitment premiums and all this sort of stuff, doesn't make any difference they have still underperformed."

"When a grower delivers to a pool they are actually handing over the risk management to someone who has no idea of the risk profile in your own farm business."

He said the days of the traditional grain pool are numbered.

"To be quite honest I really think they have to be numbered it's just not appropriate for an individual farm business to allow someone who has no knowledge of their business to manage the risk profile in the grain market for them."

Josh Martin is the trading manager of Cargill Australia, one of the country's largest grain exporters.

AWB is the farmer facing wholly owned subsidary of Cargill Australia.

Josh Martin said pools are valuable marketing alternative for farmers as a part of a portfolio approach to marketing their grain.

"What I would suggest to farmers and to growers across any region of Australia is to look at a traditional pool for what it is."

"A traditional pool provides a longer dated exposure and you know Malcolm was referring to short dated pools, whether it's a traditional pool and we can define a traditional pool as let's say an 18 month timeframe or a non traditional pool which let's define as a shorter timeframe at six to eight months for example that will depend and heavily depend on the market dynamics of each year."

"So to sit here and throw a blanket across traditional pools and say they have no value going forward I think is a complete gross exaggeration."