What kind of weirdos are economists?

After a fascinating lecture about canned soup from an economist, one may ask - "what kind of weirdos are economists?"
This guy had studied canned soup sales and pricing in Canada, at the expense of a large German supermarket. You can understand why a supermarket chain might pay for it. There were 200 kinds of canned soup sold in Canada during the study period. With some clever maths, and heaps of numbers, he could calculate not only things such as which flavours were most popular (chicken!), and the popularity of brands, but possible opportunities for increasing prices.
Economists can have a lot of fun using such trivia to show how gullible other people can be. Tim Harford (The Undercover economist) for example with one story "Paying not to go to the gym" -
http://timharford.com/2006/03/paying-not-to-go-to-the-gym/

But people, including economists, who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Tim also felt compelled to defend economists, who themselves can sometimes be too clever by half -

http://timharford.com/2014/04/economists-arent-all-bad/

The Beatles in Australia

Perhaps the greatest celebrities for baby boomers have been the Beatles, so stories are always of interest. Last week for example, from David Pannell -

http://www.pannelldiscussions.net/2014/04/264-capitol-records-shameful-handling-of-the-beatles/

This week, on the old favourite Radio National, was a story about the Australian tour. Remarkably, the Australian promoter managed to sign them up before they became famous. Even more remarkably, Brian Epstein held to his contract. The promoter, Kenn Brodziak paid 2500 pounds for the tour, and it apparently grossed 240,000 pounds. Here is a link about Kenn -

http://www.milesago.com/industry/brodziak.htm

You can imagine that at the time, his success would have inspired a generation of speculators. But Kenn's success was based on a lifetime of interest in the entertainment industry, so the Beatles tour was probably a just reward.

Those amazing soil microbes - a role in "phytoremediation"?

Starting with a story about using plants to clean up heavy metal pollution in China -
http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia-pacific/2014/04/chinese-battle-make-land-fertile-again-201441934226276246.html

led on to some other links with more detail such as this review -

http://www.esb.ucp.pt/sites/default/files/files/Biotecnologia/investigacao/pgcmarquesrcastro.pdf

It seems that plants can have a role in some situations, but reading between the lines, it seems that soil microbes are likely to have a more general role. But "further research is required .....

"Menzies legacy" - which side is she on?

Another find from Radio National - a great yarn about (Sir Robert) Menzies -
http://www.afr.com/p/lifestyle/review/robert_menzies_stolen_legacy_3toWgG4FN6Zi0sF5NOQRRL

Some great quotes - including -
Wise to the vagaries of the “verdict of history”, Menzies said to Churchill in 1948: “Five years after your death, clever young men from Oxford and Cambridge and other seats of learning will be writing books explaining that you were never right about anything!” 

Rice growing in Bali - a triumph for local wisdom?

The UNESCO recognition of Bali rice culture presents a great story about the wisdom of the traditional people, and the foolishness of the scientists who promoted the "Green Revolution" from the early 1970s. These new techniques increased the number of crops per year from two to three and therefore increased production, but the benefits did not last. Traditional practices had avoided the worst damage from pests and diseases, and had managed water supplies fairly, which preserved local harmony. Eventually, most traditional practices were restored. 

The change from traditional to "modern" scientific practices and back again, has provided comparisons to show the wisdom of traditional practices. A major contributor has been Professor Stephen Lansing, from the University of Arizona -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZLLGCaz74M

According to Stephen Lansing, the first of the new varieties was IR8, but this was susceptible to the brown planthopper, and associated rice tungro virus. A replacement variety, IR50, was resistant to tungro, but then proved susceptible to rice blast disease.

The story continues that by the 1980s, the whole of the Bali island was being sprayed, and the irrigation system was in chaos. Eventually, the Asian Development Bank was persuaded that the Balinese water temples have a practical role. A synchronised fallow is needed to control such pests, which requires community cooperation, with a tight planting period of the rice crops. Over a period such as a decade, a village can develop a suitable synchronised planting. The hand-back of control of the water temples has restored profitability for the rice industry, though heavy fertiliser applications have continued, and this is damaging coral reefs.

By his own account, Dr Lansing has participated in achieving UNESCO World Heritage listing of the water temple culture, after four attempts which were finally successful in 2012.

This story is a little too neat to be completely credible. On the other hand, I have seen similar naivety in adoption of expensive pesticide inputs by W.A. farmers. An all-to-common practice is to follow what the “sales agronomist” recommends, which is something you can buy from his shop, rather than a management plan with broader benefit, but which takes longer to develop. It would be interesting to know more, but the miracles you can see in the rice fields of Bali speaks for the capability of a cooperative community effort.

Why Bali is all about rice growing

Probably few people go to Bali to see their rice industry, but the success has been recognised for centuries, and it helps explain why the Balinese are such friendly people.

Rice growing is hard to understand for a Bali tourist, watching from the roadside. The steep, irrigated terraces that I first saw in 1991 are spectacular, but nobody explained how it was all done. I was none-the-wiser after a few more trips to various parts of Asia. Of course, language differences don’t help, and you could guess that people with a little English were more likely to be interested in the tourist game, rather than rice growing.

This time, after a short trip to Bali, and some help from the Internet, the story has become a little clearer. I suspect the story may have been gilded, but the general picture makes sense. 

The photo below shows what you see from the roadside.

The soils and climate might be good for rice cultivation, but these terraces date back over 1000 years ago, when the terraces were built by hand with only animal assisted! What is also amazing is how the water is managed. In one case we inspected, the dam supplying the water was 25 kilometers away, and this has to be organised to flood the rice, but only intermittently because the rice will die, if it is under water for too long.

The question is - how do they organise this? Who gets the water, when, and how is the runoff managed?

UNESCO explained the story when recognising the World Heritage status of this landscape and the supporting culture, in July 2012. It seems that the local "water temples”, organised the industry. Apparently this was a democratic system, and it must have been strongly embedded in the local culture.

One result seen by tourists, is the friendly, accommodating nature of the Balinese. With plenty of potential arguments about water rights, everybody must have known how get along with each other. Also, the importance of the local village (subak) is illustrated by the first question the Balinese ask - “Where are you from?”

The strength of this local culture is still evident, and seems to have persisted despite the tide of tourism - now estimated at 50 per cent of the economy. This is apparent with genuine religious practice (photos below) which seems stronger than elsewhere in Asia.

Ceremony at Lake Bratan - one of the major water temples

With growing tourism, the Balinese rice industry may have an uncertain future, perhaps in a way similar to our farming being dragged along by the mining industry. Despite this, everyone employed in tourism seems to retain their links to their home town and family. Maybe the culture will survive as more than just a show for the tourists?

The Australian story of wheat - in Albany!

Strawberry Hill Farm in Albany lays claim to be the oldest farm in Western Australia, being established in 1827. Our school boy history was that such early setters battled to survive because the climate was unsuitable for English crops such as wheat. We were told that wheat crops failed due to diseases such as rust, until William Farrer bred Federation wheat, which was distributed in 1903.

This year at the "Old Farm" - Strawberry Hill, Federation has been grown for display, along with other heritage varieties.Other varieties on display were "Miracle" - proclaimed by Wheat Commissioner in 1929 to be "by no means specifically prolific". Ford - popular in the 1930s, at least in Victoria, where it was replacing Nabawa (also on display) at that time.

Seeing these old varieties - including Federation which was much improved at the time, makes you wonder how the colonists did survive. Also of interest, was the absence of disease on these varieites, though this may be because the Albany site is now well separated from other wheat growing areas.

Pictures - the site -

Federation wheat - not a great crop compared to modern varieties.
Thanks Robbo - for the tip off!