The story behind bushfires

Disasters of bushfires around Australia hit the headlines at this time almost every year. The story untold seems to be that these disasters are exacerbated by our management of the bush.

This explained in a recent book by Bill Gammage "The Biggest Estate on Earth - How Aborigines made Australia". According to Bill, aborigines managed the bush with clever use of fire.

http://www.allenandunwin.com/default.aspx?page=94&book=9781742377483

This explanation is supported by a couple of stories from old-timers before the bush was cleared for farming. In the South Stirlings area, "you could drive your ute anywhere through the bush" when farm blocks were first allocated in the late 1950s. This would have been something like a Holden ute - not a Land Rover.

Also, the story west of Kojonup was that you could originally gallop a horse through the bush. Both anecdotes would be explained by regular burning.

A sign at Tambellup gives a similar picture, with the history of the first description of white sighting of the district. "In January 1832 ...(the view of Ensign Dale from Mount Toolbrunup).... was obscured by native fires".

It would be difficult to know how to use regular burning to minimise bushfire damage, especially if we are also trying to conserve healthy bush. If we do hope to conserve the bush, it raises the question of whether this would be the bush as it was pre-1832, pre-aboriginal settlement, or some other balance.

Intuition - or not?

One of the stories from behavioural economics that I have been quoting over the last six or eight years is from Gary Klein, from his collection of anecdotes from his studies, about the fire chief - a lieutenant. I have thought it had parallels with farm decision making -

“It is a simple house fire in a one-storey house in a residential neighbourhood.  The fire is in the back, in the kitchen area.  The lieutenant leads his hose crew into the building, to the back, to spray water on the fire, but the fire just roars back at them.

“Odd,” he thinks.  The water should have more of an impact.  They try dousing it again and get the same results.  They retreat a few steps to regroup.

Then the lieutenant starts to feel as if something is not right.  He doesn’t have any clues; he just doesn’t feel right about being in that house, so he orders his men out of the building – a perfectly standard building with nothing out of the ordinary. 

As soon as his men leave the building, the floor where they had been standing collapses.  Had they still been inside, they would have plunged into the fire below.”

After disappointment with traditional methods of analytical decision making, Klein surveyed military and emergency service workers to uncover how they made decisions. His conclusion emphasised the importance of experience, to form "intuitions" or rules of thumb to help with decisions.

However I have recently come across a different view put by Daniel Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize for his work that combined economics and psychology. Kahneman's view was formed from studying stock brokers, clinical psychologists and economic forecasters, and he concluded that experience more commonly resulted in confusion about what was luck and what was skill. Kahneman suggested that Klein's view was appropriate when decisions could be made in an environment that was predictable, and where skills could be honed by practice. 

Farming probably has characteristics of both approaches. To be safe, we should collect and analyse data as best we can, and be careful about blindly relying on experience - especially when it is the easy option. (Such as putting our trust in some "Guru".)  

Certainly most farmers are aware of the dangers of becoming too confident about what lies ahead.

The farm debt crisis?

An extract from a story from the West Australian, by Brad Thompson, Saturday, December 22nd -

"Crisis looms for many on land

Every few weeks 20 or 30 farmers gather at a crossroads in the Wheatbelt for a barbecue breakfast. They meet as mates who know they can bank on each other in tough times.

What some of them can't bank on is the credit they need to continue farming next year. With banks warning of a tough round of credit reviews starting next month, Regional Men's Health Initiative senior community educator Owen Catto is urging farmers not to feel overwhelmed when they reach their financial crossroads.

"The reality is if you can pay your mortgage or you go broke in business you have to sell what you have left and it is the same for farmers. We deal with people all the time who have sold the farm, walked off the farm and I can categorically say that there is not one bloke who regrets it," said Mr Catto, who helps to organise the barbecue gatherings and other events to offer emotional support to farmers feeling the pinch.

He predicted the number of broadacre farmers in WA could halve from an estimated 5000 to 2500 within 10 years as financial woes hit home."

Maybe this story exaggerates the situation?

Or with roughly only 5000 full time farmers in W.A,, maybe we face a major farm debt crisis.

We all know the poem "We'll all be rooned said Hanrahan". But this crisis is shaping to be the most serious period of adjustment for W.A. farming that I have seen.

Why am I doing this?

Is this blog a complete waste of time?
Or is this the start of a new way of joining in with the rest of the world?
The motivation to start this blog was an address to the ag consultants, suggesting that we should get on board with social media. The idea seemed ho-hum, until I noticed the reaction of the audience. Anyone over thirty thought it was a waste of time, but anyone younger had enthusiastic stories about possible value.
So far, I would be in the "over-30" catagory. But maybe I need to tweak the process. Maybe I should be more active in recruiting followers? Maybe it needs to be teamed with more activity on my Twitter account?
On the other hand, it is quite easy to publish the occasional post, so I can happily keep experimenting.
Any helpful suggestions would be appreciated.

A tip for New Year resolutions

A radio discussion offered a sensible tip for new year resolutions - don't expect 100 per cent success in your ambitions - 80 per cent is more realistic.
Farmers will appreciate this, because of what the season and markets can throw at us.
But it is also interesting that biological scientists usually accept 95 per cent as an acceptable level of certainty.