The book by James Surowiecki, "The Wisdom of Crowds" tells a good story about how large numbers of people can accurately forecast future events. Since reading it several years ago, the theory has not a always been right. But it has encouraged me to check on-line betting sites, to watch how people think about things like politics and the footy.
Just after Kevin Rudd was elected as Labor leader, and therefore Prime Minister, the odds of Labour gaining between 71 and 80 seats in the Lower House (75 to win Government), was $4.50 to $1. Odds have since dropped to $2.50. Still probably a good investment, if you believe the opinion polls.
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